Whoever wins, Victoria loses

The Victorian Labor party, more than a decade in government, is all out of juice. Weighed down by corruption allegations, debt and voter fatigue, the opposition would waltz into a strong majority under normal circumstances.

The only other parties with any chance of winning more than a handful of seats, however, are clearly not ready to govern themselves. The Coalition has been marred by factional in-fighting, incoherent policy positions and Liberal-on-Liberal legal problems. One Nation have already faced serious questions about their selection of candidates and have a policy platform even more chaotic than the Coalition.

One of the biggest challenges for whatever party does form government, whether as a majority or minority, is that they will be incredibly unpopular from the get-go. The Liberal Party’s brand across Australia remains toxic, despite their lead in the polls. Governing in these divided times won’t just be challenging, it will be nigh on impossible.

If Labor somehow squeak out a remarkable return to government, the issues they currently face will only grow larger and their detractors louder. If the Liberals win, they face the enormous task of handling Victoria’s serious debt issue, while keeping voters happy by not cutting essential services. Questions of debt management, cuts to services and where the money will come from will ravage any government.

Both One Nation and the Liberals are facing serious challenges in the candidates they have chosen. In Croydon, The Liberal candidate was dumped just weeks before the election despite his ongoing legal issues being common knowledge among the party. Today, they withdrew their endorsement for Williamstown candidate Paul Lindemann over comments he made about Indigenous Australians on a Facebook account named after his boat.

The less said about One Nation’s vetting, the better. Their descriptions of their candidates have been a cacophony of mistruths, blatant lies and exaggerations. The party continues to struggle seriously with vetting for their chosen candidates, following similar issues in the South Australian state election. Their candidates are almost completely self-funding their campaigns, with little help from the federal party machinery.

The Liberals have avoided putting a large amount of policy into writing, instead pursuing a small target campaign under the correct impression that if they don’t mess it up, voters won’t punish them because of widespread dissatisfaction with Labor.

A Coalition minority government, with supply from One Nation, would be catastrophic. The Liberals don’t even like each other, so imagine them having to placate One Nation’s rag-tag group of first-time political aspirants. Jess Wilson has presented herself as a moderate candidate fit to lead Victoria, but One Nation would pull the Coalition into more and more extreme positions until the relationship reached breaking point.

It would be a question of months, if not weeks, for this trifecta Coalition to break down. For Labor this would be the fastest way to turn whoever replaces them into a one-term government.

The best outcome for Labor very well may be an electoral wipeout. It will allow them to replenish their ranks with new talent more in line with what voters want and need from their representatives. Look no further than the Democratic mid-term tsunami in America for an example of this.

The Greens have so far completely failed to harness any of the anti-establishment zeitgeist which has propelled One Nation forward in the polls. Their path forward is harnessing dissatisfaction with Labor into a number of inner city and upper house seats.

When the dust settles on the election, the most likely outcome will be either a Liberal majority or minority propped up by One Nation. There has been a distinct lack of energy around the election that I have not seen in my lifetime, reflecting a deep apathy with the parties on offer.